.2013 – Worldwide PC shipments totaled 75.6 million units in the second quarter of 2013 (2Q13), down -11.4% compared to the same quarter in 2012 but slightly better than expected, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. Total shipments were effectively right on forecasts of 75.4 million and growth of -11.7%, although Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) and Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan)(APeJ) were a few points below expectations with the difference made up in the United States.
The numbers reflect a market that is still struggling with the transition to touch-based systems running Windows 8 as well as justifying ultrabook prices in the face of economic pressures and competition from tablets and other devices. A silver lining is that a number of vendors and regions seemed to be focused on inventory reduction during the second quarter, which could reflect planned launches of new models as well as lower inventory going into the second half of the year. However, it also reflects some caution among vendors and the channels in the face of remaining challenges for PCs and more than a year of declining shipments.
“With second quarter growth so close to forecast, we are still looking for some improvement in growth during the second half of the year,” said Jay Chou, Senior Analyst, IDC Worldwide PC Tracker. “Slower growth in Europe and China reflect the risks, while the improved U.S. outlook reflects potential improvement. Still, the weakness in emerging markets is a threat to a core long-term growth area. In addition, while efforts by the PC ecosystem to bring down price points and embrace touch computing should make PCs more attractive, a lot still needs to be done in launching attractive products and addressing competition from devices like tablets.”
One positive sign is that HP and Dell saw growth improve over recent quarters, possibly indicating stronger performance in coming quarters and reflecting more commercial replacements as we get closer to the end of Windows XP support. Market leader Lenovo also grew faster than the market (as well as faster than HP and Dell) although Lenovo growth slipped below zero at -1.4% and was down from prior quarters. Slow growth for Lenovo reflects the company-s focus on China, which represents over 50% of Lenovo shipments, and where short-term economic and inventory hurdles cut into 2Q13 shipments.
“The U.S. market is beginning to reflect some of the Windows XP to Windows 7 transition we-ve been expecting in the commercial PC space, as evidenced by the strong growth in the enterprise-focused Dell PC business,” said Bob O-Donnell, Program Vice President, Clients and Displays. “We-re also starting to see more stabilization in shipments, which we think is a reflection of PC lifetimes finally starting to even out after a long period of gradual increase. The end result should be more PC replacements, even if consumers and companies are selective in making replacements and wait until PCs are older before replacing them.”
Regional Highlights
United States ? Posting a decline in shipments of just -1.9% was a substantial improvement from double-digit declines in three of the past four quarters. While positive, this recovery was enabled by lower volume in 2Q12 and supported by a marked reduction in old inventory that enabled a more aggressive channel uptake. Additionally, wider selections of Windows 8 models offered by top vendors and migration from Window XP to Win7 helped to push volume higher than anticipated. Dell managed to climb above 3.8 million units for the first time since 2011, gaining a few points of share in the U.S. PC market. HP maintained its leadership position, growing roughly even with the market. These two vendors represented nearly 50% of total U.S. PC shipments in 2Q13.
EMEA ? The PC market in EMEA maintained negative trends as expected in the second quarter. Shipments remained constrained amid continued weakness in consumer demand, while softness persisted in the commercial market, as anticipated, due to unfavorable economic conditions and lack of major renewals. Portable PC shipments contracted the most, impacted by slow demand, which continued to focus on tablets, while high inventory levels inhibited sell-in during the first two months of the quarter leading vendors to focus on stock depletion. June did not bring much boost in sell-in levels, as high inventory persisted in some countries, while orders from retailers remained cautious ahead of an uncertain outlook for the back-to-school period. As a result, the traditionally stronger June replenishment did not occur, and vendors and channel players remained focused on tighter inventory control instead.
Japan ? Although the market continued to shrink and consumer sentiment remained weak, market growth came in as expected.
Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) ? Although countries outside of China were fairly in line with forecasts, with India maintaining an encouraging trajectory, overall PC shipments in the region fell slightly below forecast due to China. Weak sell-in to China during April and May constrained shipments. Although June shipments in China improved, expectations for the third quarter are being lowered to reflect remaining inventory as well as economic pressures.
Vendor Highlights
Lenovo took the top PC vendor title, continuing its streak of gains following channel expansion and solid product development. In 2Q13, Lenovo continued to make impressive gains outside of APeJ. However, the headwinds in China continued to affect its home turf significantly. Lenovo ended the quarter with a double-digit decline in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan). Overall growth has slowed from prior quarters, and slipped into negative territory this quarter, but still outpaced the market and top competitors.
HP slipped to second place, but growth improved from recent quarters. The company received a strong boost from shipments to India as part of large education projects. Shipments continued to decline significantly in EMEA, although the company-s U.S. business stabilized a bit after a significant decline in the first quarter of 2013.
Dell despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding its restructuring, the firm performed above market with a decline of -4.5%. As with HP, this was a significant improvement from the past year that was aided by improving growth in the United States. The firm continued to seek opportunities at all levels of the pricing spectrum and managed to perform above market in all key regions except Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan).
Acer Group continued to see substantial declines in shipments across regions as the company was strongly impacted by weak consumer demand. Although it has been aggressive in expanding more premium offerings to offset falling mini notebook sales, Acer has been hampered by slow demand for pricier ultrabooks.
ASUS shipments were constrained by inventory clearance challenges in key regions. Despite its focus on innovative designs, its relative weakness in the commercial space coupled with an intrinsically depressed consumer market led the vendor to see a decline of over 20%.
Table Notes:
– Some IDC estimates prior to financial earnings reports.
– Shipments include shipments to distribution channels or end users. OEM sales are counted under the vendor/brand under which they are sold.
– PCs include Desktops, Portables, Mini Notebooks, and Workstations and do not include handhelds, x86 Servers, and Tablets (i.e. iPad and Android-based Tablets with detachable keyboards). Data for all vendors are reported for calendar periods.
IDC-s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in over 80 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data.
For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.
About IDC Trackers
IDC Tracker products provide accurate and timely market size, vendor share, and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than 100 countries around the globe. Using proprietary tools and research processes, IDC-s Trackers are updated on a semiannual, quarterly, and monthly basis. Tracker results are delivered to clients in user-friendly excel deliverables and on-line query tools. The IDC Tracker Charts app, available at iTunes, allows users to view data charts from the most recent IDC Tracker products on their iPhone and iPad.
Companies Covered:
Dell Inc., Apple Inc., Acer Inc., Hewlett-Packard Company
Regions Covered:
Asia Pacific, China, United States
Topics Covered:
Operating systems and subsystems, Pricing and valuation, Tablet PC, Touchscreen
IDC is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. IDC helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based decisions on technology purchases and business strategy. More than 1,000 IDC analysts provide global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. For more than 49 years, IDC has provided strategic insights to help our clients achieve their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world-s leading technology media, research, and events company. You can learn more about IDC by visiting www.idc.com.
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